Nvidia (NVDA) has been a powerhouse in the stock market, driven by its dominance in artificial intelligence (AI), gaming, and data center technologies. As of March 16, 2025, investors are grappling with key questions about the company’s stock trajectory. Is it a buy or hold? Could it reach $1,000 a share by 2026? Why has it been falling recently? What’s the price target, and when might a stock split happen—perhaps even in 2025? Let’s dive into these questions with a clear-eyed look at Nvidia’s current state and future potential.
Is Nvidia a Buy or Hold?
Nvidia remains a titan in the tech world, with its GPUs powering everything from AI breakthroughs to high-end gaming. The stock has seen incredible growth over the past few years, climbing from modest levels to a market cap exceeding $3 trillion. Analysts largely view Nvidia as a strong long-term investment due to its leadership in AI, where it holds an estimated 80% to 95% share of the chip market. Its recent financials reinforce this: in Q4 of fiscal 2025 (ended January 2025), Nvidia reported a staggering $39.3 billion in revenue, up 93% year-over-year, driven by its data center segment.
Nvidia is currently rated as a hold, on average, for existing investors. The stock’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sits at around 29.2 for fiscal 2026, which is reasonable given its growth trajectory, but it’s down 17% over the past month from its January 2025 peak of $153.13. This dip suggests caution for new buyers, as short-term volatility could persist. However, for those with a 5- to 10-year horizon, it’s a buy on significant pullbacks—like the current one—given Nvidia’s innovation pipeline (e.g., Blackwell architecture and RTX 50 series GPUs) and the unrelenting demand for AI infrastructure from giants like Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon.
Could Nvidia Top $1,000 a Share in 2026?
To answer this, we need to consider Nvidia’s post-split reality. In June 2024, Nvidia executed a 10-for-1 stock split, bringing its share price from quadruple digits to around $100. Today, it trades at approximately $121.46 (as of March 14, 2025). Reaching $1,000 by 2026 would imply a roughly 723% increase from its current price in under two years—an ambitious leap.
Analysts are optimistic but not that optimistic. Forbes has suggested Nvidia could hit $1,000 post-split by 2026 if it maintains its habit of smashing growth expectations, implying a 248% annual increase. This scenario hinges on AI demand soaring and Nvidia’s Blackwell chips generating massive revenue. More conservative forecasts, like those from CoinPriceForecast, peg the stock at $184 to $268 by 2026, while Benzinga sees a range of $100 to $153. Even the high end of UBS Securities’ 2026 revenue projection ($146.87 billion) doesn’t quite support a $1,000 share price without a significant P/E expansion.
Verdict: Nvidia topping $1,000 by 2026 is unlikely without extraordinary catalysts—like a quantum leap in AI adoption or a market bubble. A more realistic ceiling might be $200 to $300, still a hefty gain from today’s levels.
Why Is Nvidia Stock Falling?
Nvidia’s stock has dropped 17.21% over the past month, hitting $121.46 as of March 14, 2025, down from its all-time high of $153.13 in early January. Several factors are at play. First, there’s broader market weakness, with the Nasdaq 100 dipping below 20,000—a six-month low—partly due to negative sentiment in the AI semiconductor sector after Marvell Technology’s earnings miss. Second, concerns arose in January when China’s DeepSeek lab claimed it could train competitive AI models with less computing power, sparking fears of reduced demand for Nvidia’s high-end chips. While Meta and Alphabet have since reaffirmed massive AI investments ($65 billion and $75 billion in 2025 capex, respectively), the initial sell-off lingers.
Short-term technicals also signal weakness: Nvidia is in a wide, falling trend, with support near $110.30. Posts on X echo this, with some calling it a “significant retracement.” Yet, this dip could be a buying opportunity, as the stock’s P/E is near its lowest in years, per some investor sentiment.
What Is Nvidia’s Price Target?
Analyst price targets vary widely, reflecting Nvidia’s volatility and potential. As of mid-March 2025, the consensus from 42 analysts over the past three months (per TipRanks) isn’t explicitly updated here, but earlier 12-month targets ranged from $184 to $479 (LiteFinance). Bank of America recently raised its target to $1,500 pre-split (equivalent to $150 post-split), citing Nvidia’s AI leadership. Stockanalysis.com reports a median 12-month target of $856.03 from 98 analysts, though this likely reflects pre-split math—adjusting for the 10-for-1 split, it’s closer to $85.60, below the current price, suggesting outdated data or bearish outliers.
A realistic 12-month target, based on current trends and AI growth, might range from $135 to $200, aligning with bullish forecasts from Citi and Wells Fargo ahead of Nvidia’s GTC 2025 conference. This assumes continued revenue beats and margin expansion (gross margins hit 73% in Q4 2025).
When Will Nvidia Stock Split? Will It Happen in 2025?
Nvidia’s last split was in June 2024, reducing its price from triple digits to make shares more accessible. Historically, Nvidia has split four times between 2000 and 2007, then again in 2021 and 2024, often when prices neared unaffordable levels for retail investors. At $121.46 today, it’s far from needing another split soon.
Predicting the next split depends on price momentum. If Nvidia surges toward $300 or $400 by late 2025—possible with blockbuster Blackwell sales—a split could be on the table in 2026. For 2025 specifically, it’s unlikely unless the stock doubles or triples in short order, which current forecasts don’t support. The Motley Fool notes Nvidia’s splits signal strength, but with the recent split still fresh, management might wait. No official announcements hint at a 2025 split, and market chatter (e.g., X posts from 2024) has quieted post-June.
The Future
Nvidia’s stock is a rollercoaster with a strong upward bias, given its AI dominance and robust fundamentals. Hitting $1,000 by 2026 is a stretch, but $200+ is plausible. Recent falls reflect market jitters, not a crumbling story. Price targets suggest upside, and while a 2025 split isn’t imminent, Nvidia’s history keeps the possibility alive. For investors, patience and timing are key—Nvidia’s still the AI king, but the crown comes with volatility.