Recent Articles from PredictStreet

As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes for its first meeting of 2026, the financial world is witnessing a rare moment of absolute conviction. On Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at their current target of 3.50%–3.75% has surged to a staggering 99%. This [...]

As of late January 2026, the financial landscape has undergone a tectonic shift that few saw coming just two years ago. The integration of prediction markets into the everyday brokerage accounts of millions has transformed "event contracts" from a niche obsession into a multi-billion dollar pillar of mainstream finance. Today, the ability to trade on [...]

As of January 27, 2026, the prediction market industry is no longer a fringe hobby for statistics nerds or a seasonal interest for election cycles; it has evolved into a multi-billion dollar pillar of the global financial system known as "InfoFi" (Information Finance). On Manifold Markets, the industry's self-appointed "meta-layer," traders are currently obsessed with [...]

As of January 27, 2026, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East has reached a fever pitch, and nowhere is this tension more visible than on global prediction markets. Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction platform, has seen the volume in its Iran-related military action markets explode to over $107 million. Traders are currently pricing [...]

The "Greenland Framework," a diplomatic and strategic pivot announced by President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 21, 2026, has sent shockwaves through geopolitical prediction markets. After weeks of escalating tensions that some dubbed the "Arctic Missile Crisis," the market is now pricing in a sophisticated compromise: the transition from [...]

In the week following the NCAA Football Championship, the dust is settling on more than just the gridiron. On January 20, 2026, the championship game did more than crown a college football king; it solidified Kalshi as a financial juggernaut. The platform recorded a staggering $111 million in trading volume for the single event, a [...]

The nascent but rapidly maturing world of "Information Finance" (InfoFi) is facing its most significant regulatory test yet. Introduced in early January 2026, the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 (H.R. 7004) seeks to formally ban federal officials, political appointees, and government employees from trading in prediction markets using non-public information. The [...]

As of January 27, 2026, the global financial landscape has been permanently altered by what analysts are calling the "Great Prediction War." This isn't a conflict of weapons, but of data, liquidity, and "truth pricing." For the first time in history, the collective intelligence of the crowd is outperforming traditional polling, expert analysis, and even [...]

As the final week of January 2026 unfolds, the euphoric "Bitcoin $100K" mantra that dominated New Year’s headlines is meeting a harsh reality check. Just two weeks ago, Bitcoin (BTC) stood on the precipice of history, peaking at a breathtaking $97,900 on January 14. Since then, the momentum has stalled, and the prediction markets—often the [...]

As the clock ticks toward a midnight deadline on January 31, 2026, the traditional halls of power in Washington D.C. are being outpaced by a different kind of authority: the collective intelligence of prediction markets. For weeks, political pundits maintained a cautious optimism that a funding deal would be reached, but the "smart money" has [...]

In January 2024, the prediction market industry was often dismissed as a high-stakes hobby for political junkies and crypto-anarchists. Fast forward to January 26, 2026, and the landscape has undergone a seismic shift. What began as a speculative niche has transformed into a $44 billion powerhouse, representing a staggering 130-fold growth in monthly trading volume [...]

In a legal maneuver that has sent ripples through the prediction market community, the state of Ohio has formally doubled down on its efforts to block federally regulated exchanges from operating within its borders. On January 23, 2026, the Ohio Casino Control Commission (OCCC) filed a notice of supplemental authority in federal court, signaling a [...]

January 26, 2026 — What once seemed like a fringe diplomatic curiosity or a social media provocation has transformed into a high-stakes geopolitical reality. Prediction markets are currently pricing in a significant probability that the United States will secure a formal stake in Greenland before the end of the decade. On Polymarket, a leading decentralized [...]

The landscape of global finance has been fundamentally reshaped this week as Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), the powerhouse owner of the New York Stock Exchange, finalized a landmark $2 billion strategic investment into Polymarket. This massive capital injection, which values the decentralized prediction platform at a staggering $9 billion, marks a definitive turning point in [...]

As prediction markets move from the fringes of the internet to the center of the American financial landscape, a new battle is brewing over the integrity of the information they produce. On January 9, 2026, Representative Ritchie Torres (D-NY) introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 (H.R. 7004), a landmark bill [...]

As of January 26, 2026, the landscape of global finance is being reshaped not by interest rate swaps or traditional equities, but by the "Great Prediction War." On the popular meta-forecasting platform Manifold Markets, a high-stakes contract titled "Top 1 Prediction Market by Volume in 2026" has become the industry's most-watched barometer. Currently, Polymarket holds [...]

In a decision that has sent shockwaves through the prediction market and sports betting industries, Judge Christopher Barry-Smith of the Suffolk County Superior Court ruled on January 20, 2026, that the platform Kalshi must halt its sports-related "event contracts" in Massachusetts. The preliminary injunction represents a massive victory for Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell, [...]

The National Hockey League (NHL) has officially shattered the glass ceiling for the prediction market industry. In a multiyear deal that has become the talk of both Wall Street and the sports world, the league has partnered with Kalshi and Polymarket to provide official proprietary data and broadcast branding rights. As of late January 2026, [...]

The landscape of American political forecasting has fundamentally shifted. For over a decade, PredictIt was the "little engine that could"—a research project operating under the restrictive constraints of an academic "No-Action" letter from federal regulators. Today, January 26, 2026, those training wheels are officially gone. PredictIt has completed its transformation into a fully regulated Designated [...]

The intersection of high-stakes military intelligence and decentralized finance has reached a boiling point this week as Israeli security services launch an unprecedented investigation into a single prediction market account. The focus is on the user known as Rundeep (formerly RicoSauve666), whose uncanny ability to "predict" Israeli military operations has earned them over $150,000 in [...]

As Winter Storm Fern barrels toward the Northeast, New York City is bracing for its most significant snowfall in years, and prediction markets are reflecting the high stakes. On Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated exchange, traders have aggressively bid up the probability of a major event, with the consensus now pointing toward a heavy accumulation that could [...]

With the March 31 resolution date fast approaching, traders on decentralized prediction platforms are locked in a high-stakes debate over the future of the "Board of Peace" (BoP). As of January 24, 2026, the market for the new global conflict-resolution body has become a focal point for geopolitical speculators, with Russia currently sitting at a [...]

As of January 24, 2026, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is being distilled into a single, high-stakes number on the world’s leading prediction markets. Traders on Polymarket are currently pricing in a 21% probability that Ali Khamenei will be out as the Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28, 2026. This surge in [...]

As the January 31 deadline for federal funding rapidly approaches, the high-stakes political drama usually associated with Capitol Hill budget battles appears to be fizzling out—at least according to the collective intelligence of the world’s most active traders. On the leading decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of a U.S. government shutdown has plummeted to [...]

As of January 24, 2026, the geopolitical landscape has been rocked by a sudden and intense focus on the world's largest island. What was once dismissed as a peripheral diplomatic curiosity has transformed into one of the most liquid and debated markets in the prediction space. Traders are currently grappling with the nuances of "ownership" [...]

As January 2026 enters its final week, the digital landscape of prediction markets is flashing a warning sign that global intelligence communities and defense analysts are watching closely. On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, the collective "wisdom of the crowd" is currently pricing in a significant possibility of a direct United States military strike on [...]

With the first Federal Reserve meeting of 2026 just days away, prediction markets have reached a state of near-total consensus. Traders are placing massive bets that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will opt to keep interest rates steady at its January 27–28 meeting, halting the cycle of rate cuts that defined the latter half [...]

The 98th Academy Awards race has officially entered its most volatile phase following the announcement of the official nominations today, January 24, 2026. In the immediate wake of the Academy's reveal, prediction markets have reacted with lightning speed, cementing a clear hierarchy that suggests a potential landslide victory for one of the year’s most ambitious [...]

As the NFL postseason reaches its fever pitch, the eyes of the financial and sporting worlds are locked on a high-stakes showdown in the Pacific Northwest. With the NFC Championship game scheduled for tomorrow, January 25, 2026, prediction markets have transformed a regional rivalry into a global betting phenomenon. The race for the Super Bowl [...]

The race to lead the world’s most powerful central bank has reached a fever pitch in prediction markets, with a decisive shift in sentiment favoring Wall Street veteran Rick Rieder. As of January 24, 2026, Rieder, the Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK), has emerged as the clear frontrunner [...]

The dawn of 2026 has brought a seismic shift to the prediction market landscape, one that is blurring the lines between the regulated boardrooms of Washington D.C. and the permissionless protocols of decentralized finance. As of January 23, 2026, the focus of the trading world has shifted from specific election outcomes to the very infrastructure [...]

As we move into early 2026, the global information landscape has undergone a radical transformation. No longer are political analysts and corporate strategists solely reliant on slow-moving surveys or expert panels to gauge the future. Instead, they are turning to the real-time, high-stakes data of prediction markets. These platforms, once viewed as niche betting hubs, [...]

In the early hours of January 3, 2026, the world woke to the shocking news that Nicolás Maduro had been captured by U.S. Special Operations forces in a daring raid dubbed "Operation Absolute Resolve." But while mainstream news outlets like The New York Times (NYSE: NYT) and News Corp (NASDAQ: NWSA) were scrambling to confirm [...]

The landscape of global finance is undergoing a structural transformation as the boundaries between speculative betting and institutional trading continue to blur. As of January 2026, the entry of Wall Street heavyweights Susquehanna International Group (SIG) and DRW into the prediction market space has signaled the end of the "retail-only" era. These firms are not [...]

As the first month of 2026 draws to a close, the prediction market industry is no longer a niche corner of the internet; it has evolved into a foundational pillar of global finance. On Manifold Markets, a high-stakes meta-contract titled "Top 1 Prediction Market by Volume in 2026" has become the definitive barometer for the [...]

As the 2026 midterm election cycle enters its first high-stakes primary season this January, the prediction market landscape looks radically different than it did during the 2024 presidential frenzy. While the crypto-fueled giants like Polymarket continue to draw billions in volume from international speculators, a quieter, more academic battle is being waged on PredictIt. Despite [...]

The landscape of global finance has shifted. As of January 23, 2026, the once-niche sector of prediction markets has officially entered its "Decacorn Era." With Kalshi recently commanding an $11 billion valuation and Polymarket following closely at $9 billion, event-based trading is no longer a curiosity for political junkies and crypto enthusiasts—it is a cornerstone [...]

On January 20, 2026, the legal landscape for prediction markets shifted dramatically when a Massachusetts court delivered a stinging blow to Kalshi, the leading federally regulated exchange. Suffolk County Superior Court Judge Christopher Barry-Smith granted a preliminary injunction requiring the platform to immediately cease offering its popular sports-related "event contracts" to Massachusetts residents without first [...]

The sudden $400,000 profit on a Venezuelan regime-change contract has done more than just mint a new crypto-millionaire; it has ignited a firestorm on Capitol Hill. As of January 23, 2026, the prediction market industry is facing its most significant regulatory reckoning to date with the introduction of the "Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets [...]

On January 12, 2026, the global financial landscape reached a watershed moment that many analysts are calling the "death of the pundit and the birth of the market." Total daily trading volume across prediction platforms skyrocketed to a record-breaking $701.7 million, shattering the previous day's record and signaling a fundamental shift in how the world [...]

As of January 22, 2026, the global financial landscape is undergoing a fundamental transformation. What was once a niche corner of the internet for political junkies and hobbyist forecasters has evolved into a powerhouse of the modern economy. Prediction markets—increasingly rebranded by Wall Street as "event trading"—are no longer just a curiosity; they are becoming [...]

As the Federal Reserve prepares for its first policy meeting of 2026 on January 28, a quiet revolution is taking place on the trading floors of Manhattan and Chicago. While traditional bond traders scramble to interpret yield curve shifts, a growing cohort of institutional and retail investors is turning to Kalshi to buy direct protection [...]

In the wake of the high-stakes 2024 election cycle, many analysts expected a "prediction market hangover"—a period of cooling interest and declining volumes as the political fever broke. Instead, as of January 22, 2026, the opposite has occurred. Prediction markets have evolved from election-centric novelties into high-velocity "truth engines" for every corner of culture and [...]

As of January 22, 2026, the landscape of American finance is undergoing its most radical transformation in decades, driven not by a new asset class, but by the systematic dismantling of the guardrails that once hemmed it in. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), once the primary antagonist of event-based wagering, has been effectively reshaped [...]

As we cross into 2026, the global information landscape has undergone a radical transformation. The era of relying solely on traditional polling—often criticized for its slow response times and methodological lag—is being eclipsed by the rise of prediction markets. Following their standout performance during the 2024 US Presidential Election, these platforms are no longer viewed [...]

As the sun sets over Atlanta, Georgia, 25-year-old Logan Sudeith isn't heading home from an office. Instead, he is likely propped up against his headboard, surrounded by glowing monitors and discarded DoorDash containers, preparing for another marathon shift in the world of "Information Finance." Sudeith is a leading figure in a burgeoning class of professionals [...]

The retail trading landscape has been fundamentally reshaped. As of January 22, 2026, Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) has officially transitioned from a stock-and-crypto powerhouse into the undisputed leader of the prediction market revolution. Following a record-breaking holiday season and a high-stakes NFL playoff run, the platform announced it has surpassed the staggering milestone of 11 [...]

NEW YORK — Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction platform, has officially begun its long-awaited homecoming. After years of operating in a regulatory exile that forced it to block American IP addresses, the platform is now aggressively onboarding thousands of users from its domestic waitlist. This strategic pivot follows a landmark regulatory shift under the [...]

As of January 22, 2026, the United States is witnessing a historic constitutional collision between federal financial oversight and century-old state police powers. At the center of this storm is KalshiEX LLC, the first federally regulated exchange for "event contracts," which is currently locked in a multi-front legal war with state gaming regulators in Nevada, [...]

The early morning of January 3, 2026, will be remembered as one of the most significant geopolitical shifts of the decade. As U.S. Army Delta Force commandos descended upon the Fort Tiuna military complex in Caracas to capture Nicolás Maduro, a parallel drama was unfolding in the digital corridors of decentralized finance. While the world [...]

As the legal landscape for prediction markets enters its most volatile phase yet, a "Shadow Market" on the forecasting platform Manifold Markets has become the ultimate barometer for the industry's survival. Traders are currently placing an overwhelming 81% probability on a scenario where federal preemption—the legal doctrine that federal law overrides state law—will shield prediction [...]

As of January 21, 2026, the financial landscape has undergone a seismic shift. While traditional equity analysts still pore over balance sheets, a new breed of institutional and retail traders is looking elsewhere for an informational edge: prediction markets. Once dismissed as a niche interest for political junkies, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have evolved [...]

OSLO — In the high-stakes world of international diplomacy, few secrets are as guarded as the deliberations of the Norwegian Nobel Committee. For over a century, the 50-year seal of secrecy has been considered a fortress. But on October 10, 2025, that fortress was breached not by a disgruntled staffer or a whistleblower, but by [...]

The landscape of American forecasting shifted fundamentally this winter as the industry's two largest heavyweights, FanDuel and DraftKings, officially entered the prediction market space. Moving beyond point spreads and over-unders, these legacy sportsbooks have launched dedicated "event contract" platforms—FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions—to capture a share of the exploding interest in political and economic wagering. [...]

As of January 21, 2026, the American financial landscape is locked in a high-stakes jurisdictional civil war. On one side, federal regulators and Silicon Valley giants argue that prediction markets are sophisticated hedging tools—derivatives no different than corn futures or interest rate swaps. On the other, state attorneys general and powerful tribal gaming interests contend [...]

As of January 21, 2026, the world of prediction markets is fixated on an audacious geopolitical wager: the "Greenland Gamble." On the decentralized platform Polymarket, traders are currently pricing in a 20% to 23% probability that the United States will successfully acquire Greenland by the end of 2026. This surge in betting activity follows a [...]

The rapid evolution of prediction markets has reached a fever pitch as Kalshi, the first federally regulated exchange for event contracts, officially reached "decacorn" status this month. With a fresh $11 billion valuation and weekly trading volumes consistently surpassing the $1 billion mark, the platform has transformed from a niche economic forecasting tool into a [...]

As the 2026 legislative session kicks off in Albany, the future of the prediction market industry in the United States is being decided not in a courtroom or on a trading floor, but in the halls of the New York State Assembly. The Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events (ORACLE) Act, [...]

As of January 21, 2026, the fast-evolving world of "Information Finance" is facing its most significant legislative reckoning to date. Congressman Ritchie Torres (D-NY) has officially introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 (H.R. 7004), a bill designed to bring the ethics of Wall Street to the burgeoning world of event [...]

CARACAS/NEW YORK — On January 3, 2026, at 4:21 a.m. EST, a post on Truth Social, the platform owned by Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ: DJT), sent shockwaves across the globe: Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro had been captured by U.S. special operations forces in "Operation Absolute Resolve." While the world grappled with the geopolitical [...]

WASHINGTON, D.C. — January 20, 2026 — Exactly one year after Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States, a new kind of ticker tape is dominating the financial landscape. It isn't tracking the S&P 500 or the price of gold, but rather the specific syllables spoken by the Commander-in-Chief. [...]

As New York City enters the first weeks of the Zohran Mamdani administration, political analysts and financial traders alike are looking back at the 2025 mayoral race not just for its ideological shift, but as a watershed moment for the prediction market industry. For the first time in a major U.S. municipal election, real-time betting [...]

As of January 20, 2026, a fundamental shift has occurred in the plumbing of global finance. For decades, the "tape"—the real-time feed of stock and bond prices—was the undisputed source of truth for traders. Today, that tape has a rival. Professional desks at major banks and hedge funds are increasingly turning to prediction markets like [...]

As of January 20, 2026, the prediction market world is grappling with a new reality: the prospect of a federal ban on government employees and politicians trading the very outcomes they influence. Prompted by a suspicious $400,000 windfall on the offshore platform Polymarket, Congressman Ritchie Torres (D-NY) has formally introduced the Public Integrity in Financial [...]

As the Federal Reserve prepares for its first policy meeting of 2026 on January 27–28, a significant shift has occurred in how the financial world anticipates interest rate decisions. The traditional dominance of professional economic surveys and even standard bond-market derivatives is being challenged by prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. For the upcoming January [...]

As the NFL post-season reaches its fever pitch, the prediction market landscape is signaling a seismic shift in the professional football hierarchy. With Super Bowl LX just weeks away, the Seattle Seahawks have defied preseason expectations to become the definitive favorites to lift the Lombardi Trophy. According to the latest data from the regulated prediction [...]

As the 2026 legislative session kicks off in Albany, a high-stakes battle is unfolding over the future of decentralized and regulated forecasting in the Empire State. New York lawmakers are currently scrambling to pass legislation that could either legitimize prediction markets as the next frontier of finance or crush them under the weight of "reckless [...]

The sudden and dramatic capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. special operations forces in early January 2026 sent shockwaves through the global political landscape. However, for those watching the prediction markets, the real explosion happened hours before the first Delta Force helicopter crossed the Venezuelan border. A single, anonymous trader placed a high-stakes bet that [...]

As the second year of the second Trump administration begins on this January 20, 2026, the political world is already looking toward the horizon of 2028. While traditional pundits often wait for the midterm results to declare favorites, prediction market traders have already reached a consensus. Vice President JD Vance has solidified his position as [...]

In a move that has sent shockwaves through the burgeoning "information economy," Polymarket has officially staged its return to the United States. Following a multi-year exile by federal regulators, the world’s largest prediction market platform successfully bypassed the typical years-long licensing process by executing a strategic $112 million acquisition of QCX, a Commodity Futures Trading [...]

As of January 19, 2026, the landscape of American finance looks fundamentally different than it did just two years ago. The once-fringe world of prediction markets has exploded into a mainstream powerhouse, driven by a radical shift in federal oversight. What began as a high-stakes legal battle between Kalshi and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [...]

The 2024 U.S. Presidential election served as a high-stakes laboratory for the burgeoning world of prediction markets, pitting established academic platforms against crypto-native giants and regulated newcomers. As of January 19, 2026, the dust has finally settled on the post-election post-mortems, revealing a surprising "Accuracy War" where the most liquid markets weren’t necessarily the most [...]

As of mid-January 2026, the global financial landscape is witnessing a profound shift in how risk is priced and managed. Long dismissed as the domain of political junkies and speculators, prediction markets have officially entered the "Institutional Era." This morning, January 19, 2026, trading desks at major investment banks are no longer just looking at [...]

As of January 19, 2026, the global financial landscape is increasingly dominated by a controversial new asset class: geopolitical instability. Following the chaotic start to the year—marked by the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela on January 3 and a subsequent hypersonic missile test by Pyongyang on January 4—prediction markets have seen an unprecedented surge [...]

As the first month of 2026 reaches its crescendo, a high-stakes financial battle is playing out not just on the trading floors of Wall Street, but in the digital arenas of prediction markets. On Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction platform, a market titled "Largest Company by Market Cap at end of January?" has surpassed [...]